1) Approaches to Forecasting Policy Outcomes
judgmental. Provide at least two reasons for your selection of the forecasting approach. 2) Types of Forecasting" Please respond to the following: Debate It: Take a position for or against this statement: It is better to be approximately right than
exactly wrong. Provide at least two reasons and one hypothetical example to support your
position. 3) "Prescribing Preferred Policies" Please respond to the following: Explain two of the six criteria for policy prescription, (a) effectiveness, (b) efficiency, (c)
adequacy, (d) equity, (e) responsiveness, and (f) appropriateness. Then, describe a real or
hypothetical public policy issue and select which of the two criteria you believe would be the
most beneficial to use in deciding a policy. Provide at least two reasons for your selection. Debate It: Take a position for or against the following statement: Rational choice is not possible.
Discuss how different types of rationality are related to different criteria for prescription. Provide
at least two reasons and two examples to support your response. 4) "Monitoring Observed Policy Outcomes" Please respond to the following: Discuss the relationship between ill-structured problems and approaches to monitoring. Then,
describe a real or hypothetical problem and recommend at least one effective way to monitor
the policy outcomes. Support your position. Use at least two threats to validity and develop a rebuttal to two of the following statements: (a)
The greater the cost of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (b)
The enforcement of the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (c) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100 million miles after the
implementation of the 55-mph speed limit. (Refer to Figure 6.13 before responding.) 5) "Monitoring through Experimentation" Please respond to the following: Assume you are the program chair of an employment program for students who did not
graduate high school but earned a GED (Government Equivalency Degree). You have limited
resources and want to determine the factors that ensure students succeed in their jobs. Explain
to the program director how the “tiebreaking” experiment might allow the program to uncover
that information.
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